Matching Audit

The three gates

A pair reaches the board only after three checks. First, the deterministic matcher: token overlap and sequence similarity, with hard blocks on questions that share words but ask different things (party vs person, one House seat vs the whole chamber, making a runoff vs winning, an endorsement vs a win, a margin of victory vs a win, different years or deadlines).

Second, Jev, a System One model that reads both markets' resolution rules and answers two questions: is this the same event, and do the two venues settle it on the same terms? At 0.35 or below on the first question a pair is dismissed; under 0.80 it is held. Every pair on the board carries a terms label: same contract (settles identically), close terms (wording differs slightly) or terms differ.

Terms differ is common. Kalshi's next prime minister markets, for example, pay on the first new person to hold the office at any time, interim holders included, while Polymarket's pay on whoever is sworn in after the next election by a set date. Same event, different contracts, so part of that gap is the price of the difference. We only mark a gap net positive when the terms are the same or close.

Third, the staleness gate: either venue silent for 24 hours demotes the pair, because a price that stopped moving is a fossil, not a quote. A pair with a gap of 10 cents or more that has not been checked yet waits in review rather than going on the board.

Counts as of the delayed scan (10 minutes behind): 28 on board (0 same contract, 15 close terms, 13 terms differ, 0 not checked yet), 6 held (unsure or awaiting verification), 620 dismissed (different events).

All pairs